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March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

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December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2018

The just-released CNBC survey of economists, market strategists and money managers placed the blame for the stock market decline that started in late September on a variety of catalysts including, as prioritized in the survey: 1) tariffs and trade wars, 2) a weakening global economy, 3) the risk that the Fed raises rates too much, […]

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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

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August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2018

Almost exactly twenty years ago, in the midst of the so-called “Asian Contagion” financial crisis, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan used the occasion of a 1998 Speech at the University of California at Berkeley to offer a perspective that was as prescient in 1998 as it is relevant in 2018. The Chairman noted that, “It is […]

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January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2017

When asked on August 15th on “Fox & Friends” about his goals for tax reform, President Trump replied, to “put H&R Block out of business.” Tax simplification is a favorite spurious term of politicians, as it is something that almost everyone can get behind. We see this term used all of the time including, as […]

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2017

Traditionally, the selection of the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve is anything but a compelling drama or anything worth paying particular attention to. To the contrary, the identity of the nominee is normally a foregone conclusion as, since World War II, every Chairperson who completed a first term has been nominated for a second […]

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January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2017

01 Per Stirling Capital Outlook JAN 2017

To state the obvious, Donald Trump is not your average President, or even your average politician. He doesn’t look like a politician. He doesn’t act like a politician and he most certainly doesn’t think like a politician. If anything, he seems to view himself more as a corporate raider engaging in hostile takeovers or as […]

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December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2016

In his 1936 book entitled The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, economics pioneer John Maynard Keynes introduced the concept of “animal spirits” into the analysis of how the owners and managers of companies make business decisions and how investors make investment decisions. His premise was that strong company and/or macroeconomic fundamentals (earnings, interest […]

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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2016

The most insightful comment from this year’s presidential election campaign may have come from the September 23rd edition of The Atlantic magazine, which said of President-Elect Trump, “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” Throughout the campaign, Trump was the ultimate enigma. From an investor’s perspective, […]

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2016

The lexicon of investment terminology is full of animal metaphors, which range from the most basic of descriptors like “bull market” and “bear market” to highly evocative terms like a “dead cat bounce” and a “black swan.” This last term seems particularly relevant today, in light of the current election cycle. A “black swan” is a […]

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