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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

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August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2018

Almost exactly twenty years ago, in the midst of the so-called “Asian Contagion” financial crisis, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan used the occasion of a 1998 Speech at the University of California at Berkeley to offer a perspective that was as prescient in 1998 as it is relevant in 2018. The Chairman noted that, “It is […]

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January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2017

When asked on August 15th on “Fox & Friends” about his goals for tax reform, President Trump replied, to “put H&R Block out of business.” Tax simplification is a favorite spurious term of politicians, as it is something that almost everyone can get behind. We see this term used all of the time including, as […]

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2017

Traditionally, the selection of the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve is anything but a compelling drama or anything worth paying particular attention to. To the contrary, the identity of the nominee is normally a foregone conclusion as, since World War II, every Chairperson who completed a first term has been nominated for a second […]

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January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2017

01 Per Stirling Capital Outlook JAN 2017

To state the obvious, Donald Trump is not your average President, or even your average politician. He doesn’t look like a politician. He doesn’t act like a politician and he most certainly doesn’t think like a politician. If anything, he seems to view himself more as a corporate raider engaging in hostile takeovers or as […]

Britain China deregulation domestic business Donald Trump embargos Enrique Peña Nieto equity valuations Fed Governors Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus GATT higher inflation interest rate rise Janet Yellen Japan Mexico NAFTA populism protectionism regulations Republicans tariffs Theresa May TPP trade war trade wars trading partners trial balloons World War II

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December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2016

In his 1936 book entitled The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, economics pioneer John Maynard Keynes introduced the concept of “animal spirits” into the analysis of how the owners and managers of companies make business decisions and how investors make investment decisions. His premise was that strong company and/or macroeconomic fundamentals (earnings, interest […]

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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2016

The most insightful comment from this year’s presidential election campaign may have come from the September 23rd edition of The Atlantic magazine, which said of President-Elect Trump, “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” Throughout the campaign, Trump was the ultimate enigma. From an investor’s perspective, […]

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2016

The lexicon of investment terminology is full of animal metaphors, which range from the most basic of descriptors like “bull market” and “bear market” to highly evocative terms like a “dead cat bounce” and a “black swan.” This last term seems particularly relevant today, in light of the current election cycle. A “black swan” is a […]

Bernie Sanders black swan Brexit cash reserves consensus dead cat bounce debt markets Democrats Donald Trump Dow Jones Industrial Average election Elizabeth Warren European Union expectations Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Green Party Hillary Clinton House of Representatives interest rate hike Japan Libertarian rate hike real estate Republicans Senate Supreme Court surprise tail risks Tea Party Wall Street White House Wikileaks

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September

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – September 2016

As David Rosenberg, Chief Economist for Gluskin Sheff, recently observed, “summer vacation is over.” Summer is known for being a quiescent period in the markets, when trading volumes are very low and Wall Street’s primary decision-makers are off vacationing in the Hamptons. This summer was even calmer than usual. As evidence, the Standard & Poor’s […]

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December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2015

Warren Buffett famously noted that “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” This quote has particular relevance today as we are finally starting to see free-market pricing mechanisms at work, as market-distorting forces ranging from the Federal Reserve’s expansive monetary stimulus programs to the O.P.E.C. oil cartel are increasingly […]

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