21

February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

23

January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2019

If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, could it actually be something entirely different? While this question appears entirely nonsensical on its surface, it epitomizes the challenges associated with making tactical investment decisions around potential market inflection points, when major trend changes may be underway. As […]

bear market bear traps Ben Bernanke Brett Ryan bull market capitulation chance of recession China Christmas counter-trend rallies crowd psychology decline Deutsche Bank duck euphoria fear Fed Chairman Powell Federal Reserve government shutdown greed hard data higher volatility investor emotion Mark Zandi monetary policy NYSE Pelosi quantitative tightening rally recession retest reversals in market trends short-term rates soft data stock market bottoms Trump two-way risk volatility volume equals validity wall of worry yield curve inversion Yogi Berra

27

August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2018

Almost exactly twenty years ago, in the midst of the so-called “Asian Contagion” financial crisis, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan used the occasion of a 1998 Speech at the University of California at Berkeley to offer a perspective that was as prescient in 1998 as it is relevant in 2018. The Chairman noted that, “It is […]

Alan Greenspan Asia/Pacific region Asian Contagion bull market Chairman Powell China Chinese recession deflationary influences deregulation domestic interest rates emerging markets Europe European Union Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus growth stocks inflationary risk Latin America Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund low interest rates Mexico mid-term elections monetary accommodation monetary policy changes monetary stimulus NAFTA political drama President Trump quantitative tightening recession reversion to the mean tactical investment opportunities tax reform tech bubble Thai baht trade deal trade war U.S.value stocks

05

February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2018

There is probably no other professional or academic pursuit in which aphorisms and maxims are so prevalent and so enduring as they are in the world of market analysis and investing. Indeed, there is a very good reason for that being the case, which is that so many of these pieces of market lore are just as […]

bear markets bearish capitulation bears bond markets bond prices bull markets bulls CATO Institute ETFs Federal Reserve financial crisis FOMO fundamentals Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index Great Rotation inflation interest rates Jay Powell Millennials monetary stimulus monetary tightening quantitative easing quantitative tightening S&P 500 securitized real estate Teflon terminal interest rate dilemma

30

November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2017

For the past nine years, the single most important influence on global asset prices has been the experimental and highly aggressive monetary policies employed by the world’s central banks. It should therefore be no surprise that the planned-for reversal of those policies could be almost as significant to capital markets as was their introduction. Indeed, […]

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31

August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2017

Over the past decade, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has developed into the preferred venue for the world’s major central bankers to influence and offer guidance to both the capital markets and business leaders, and to announce and update their innovative and very aggressive monetary policies. As the 2017 Symposium has just come to […]

Asia asset prices Ben Bernanke bond investors bond market Britain capital markets central bankers China corporate regulation deregulation domestic stocks Europe European Central Bank Federal Reserve fundamentals Global Financial Crisis globalism high quality bonds higher rates inflation interest rates isolationism Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Japan Latin America lower rates market breadth negative yields positive yield quantitative easing quantitative tightening sovereign bonds US multinational stocks wealth effect

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