In our most recent commentary, which we published on December 16th, we concentrated on the fact that the U.S. stock market was nowhere as strong as it appeared on the surface, and that it was being distorted by six stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms [formerly Facebook] and Tesla) that represent about 25% of […]
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Legendary investor Warren Buffett once noted, very insightfully, that “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Mr. Buffet’s point is that it rarely becomes evident during a roaring bull market who is overly leveraged, overly aggressive, or improperly diversified. This is particularly true after extended periods when there has […]
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Among a myriad of other things, the year 2020 will be remembered as a period that featured an unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented”. The extraordinary nature of this year is evidenced in everything from unprecedented pandemic case counts and the most ambitious vaccine campaign in U.S. history to a record election turnout, and from […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
“‘Ahhh, this porridge is just right’ Goldilocks said happily and she ate it all up”. As we have conjectured over recent commentaries, the equity markets rallied strongly in response to the increased, albeit incomplete, political certainty that the election provided. In fact, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index enjoyed its biggest post-election rally since 1932. […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
With the election now only one week away, this will be the last Outlook that concentrates on this contentious subject. At least, the equity markets had better hope that is the case because, if the election is still a point of significant uncertainty and market relevance a month from now, we would anticipate that we […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
On January 4th of last year, at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, former Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, stated “I don’t think [economic] expansions just die of old age”, only to be upstaged by Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who completed her statement by saying that, instead, they get “murdered” by […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
In a November of 1947 speech, Winston Churchill famously noted that “no one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” One can only imagine what Churchill would think […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
The Cambridge Dictionary defines the term “light at the end of the tunnel” as “signs of improvement in a situation that has been bad for a long time, or signs that a long and difficult piece of work is almost finished”. From a medical, economic and societal perspective, we believe that there is growing evidence […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
One of the traditional characteristics of equity markets is that they rarely spend much time priced at what most investors would consider to be “fair value”, and instead tend to trade back and forth between being undervalued and overvalued, relative to the economic fundamentals of the underlying companies. These swings tend to take place over […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
One of the most time-honored and frequently recited Wall Street maxims came from renowned value investor Sir John Templeton, who famously observed that “The four most dangerous words in investing are, ‘it’s different this time.’” In this comment, Sir John is not suggesting that all bull and bear markets have the same catalysts, or even […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve