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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2018

The dictionary defines a “perfect storm” as “a detrimental or calamitous situation or event arising from the powerful combined effect of a unique set of circumstances”. It is also, in our opinion, an appropriate and pragmatic way of describing the wide and diverse array of catalysts for the ongoing correction in the equity markets. Like […]

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September

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – September 2018

One of our all-time favorite quips came from Mark Twain, who noted that “while history does not repeat itself, it oftentimes rhymes”. With that particularly pithy caveat as a disclaimer, there are some strong and notably persistent tendencies in the capital markets that are unique to midterm election years, and which can create both challenges […]

Brett Kavanaugh Capital Alpha Partners consumer confidence Democrat Deutsche Bank divided government election results European Union Federal Reserve FiveThirtyEight Goldman Sachs Great Britain Hillary Clinton House of Representatives immigration policies labor shortage Mark Twain market volatility midterm elections October potential impeachment rally Republican S&P 500 S&P Capital IQ Senate Supreme Court tax reform trade war UBS wage inflation Wells Fargo Investment Institute

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August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2018

Almost exactly twenty years ago, in the midst of the so-called “Asian Contagion” financial crisis, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan used the occasion of a 1998 Speech at the University of California at Berkeley to offer a perspective that was as prescient in 1998 as it is relevant in 2018. The Chairman noted that, “It is […]

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July

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – July 2018

One of the most important concepts in investing is that nominal macro-economic and company-specific data is only made relevant to investors when it is considered in contrast to what expectations existed for the data prior to its release. This is because securities are discounting mechanisms that are priced based upon what data is expected to […]

aluminum automobile balance sheet shrinkage Charles Schwab China corporate earnings earnings European Central Bank European Union debt crisis expectations Fed Chair Powell Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Beige Book higher dollar inflation manufacturers Ned Davis Research rate hikes restrictive monetary policy share repurchasing steel stimulative monetary policy tariffs trade conflict trade disruptions trade flows trade policies trade war U.S. dollar uncertainty yield curve yield curve inversion

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June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2018

In light of the almost surreal trade-related headlines that confront us on a daily basis, it seems only appropriate to invoke the words of philosopher George Santayana, who famously remarked that “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” If the founding fathers of the world’s various democracies knew then what we […]

Alan Greenspan Ben Bernanke bond market China consumer staples Cook Political Report domestic bond prices domestic drillers European Central Bank Fed Chairman George Santayana Henry Ford inflation Mnuchin pharma President Hoover protectionism recession regional banks REITs small-cap Smoot-Hawley Tarriff Act tariffs telecom The Trade Partnership Thomas Lamont trade conflict trade protectionism trade-related uncertainty U.S. trade policy utilities

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May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2018

Warren Buffett has long been a great source for market perspective that is both pithy and insightful, and one of his very best adages is that, “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. In this instance, it is the tide of monetary liquidity that is “going out”, and some […]

American Association of Individual Investors APAC Argentina bonds BRIC bull market buying power changing fundamentals corporate earnings correction deregulation economic contraction emerging markets EUR Federal Funds Rate future rally interest rates investor psychology Italy Japan Latin America monetary liquidity monetary tightening peak earnings quantitative easing rally sustainability sideline cash stronger US dollar Venezuela Warren Buffett zombie companies

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April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2018

In many regards, the words President and Trump, when put together, become an oxymoron of sorts, because he rarely conforms to the common perception of what we, as Americans, consider to be “presidential”. However, the fact that President Trump is bombastic and unorthodox should hardly be a surprise. Those are probably the very personality traits […]

American Association of Individual Investors Australia bearish sentiment bull market Canada China company earnings cyclical top deregulation European Union Fed Chairman global economic data Great Britain immigration interest rates investor psychology Iran Japan Jay Powell NAFTA protectionism Russia Syria tariff tax reform TPP trade Trump uncertainty United Nations valuations volatility World Trade Organization

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March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2018

We had noted in a January Reuters interview our belief that, “Short of something truly stupid like a trade war with China or a withdrawal from NAFTA, or something horrific like a nuclear conflict with North Korea, we don’t see a scenario where investors are likely to elevate politics to the same level of importance […]

aluminum Argentina Australia Bank of Japan Brazil Canada China corporate earnings growth currency markets dictators domestic debt European Central Bank European Union Federal Reserve inflation inflationary mix intellectual property interest rates Mexico monetary policy NAFTA North Korea Penn Wharton Budget Model Peter Navarro protectionism quantitative easing Robert Lighthizer steel tariffs trade deficit trade war Trump undervalued currencies value-added taxes White House National Trade Council world trade

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February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2018

It is a widely-held belief amongst analysts that market volatility increases at tops and bottoms, which makes sense, as such directional changes take place at a time when the strength of a consensus opinion is weakening, bulls and bears are increasingly evenly matched, and each camp is waging a back and forth battle for control […]

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