In our most recent commentary, which we published on December 16th, we concentrated on the fact that the U.S. stock market was nowhere as strong as it appeared on the surface, and that it was being distorted by six stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms [formerly Facebook] and Tesla) that represent about 25% of […]
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To quote the opening line of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness”. For the two indexes most commonly used as a performance benchmark for equity portfolios, the Standard & Poor’s […]
As American investors settled in for Thanksgiving this year, it appeared that they had much to be thankful for. While inflation was still a worrisome issue, there were some signs that the supply chain snafus that were exacerbating the problem were starting to unwind, and the Fed continued to offer assurances that inflation would […]
It is quite ironic that, in April of 2020, after years of inflation running at undesirably low levels, the Federal Reserve unveiled a series of new policies that were designed to elevate the inflation rate. These changes included a shift to “average inflation targeting, where they would seek an average inflation rate of 2%, as […]
We had a very rewarding experience last week when one of the firm’s Directors was the featured guest on the prestigious Barron’s Live blog. As part of our preparation for that event, we spent some time trying to anticipate what kinds of questions might be asked by the moderator and/or the audience, and then organizing […]
According to Winston Churchill, “A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen”. With the mid-term elections over a year away and the next presidential election more than three years away, this […]
Whether it is “bittersweet”, “jumbo shrimp”, or “plastic silverware”, there are words or combinations of words that, despite many of them being commonly-used components of the American lexicon, are on their surface counter-intuitive and nonsensical. They are referred to as oxymorons, and their economic equivalent is almost certainly “stagflation”, the existence of which, when it […]
“From that day on, we was [sic] always together. Jenny and me was [sic] like peas and carrots.” –From the movie Forrest Gump. As was noted by this classic Tom Hanks character, whether it be Texas and hot summers, birthdays and cake, or higher inflation and higher interest rates, there are certain things that just […]
Is it possible that we just witnessed “peak everything” (or at least peak many things)? Did we just witness a peak in the growth rate of money supply, in the pace of government fiscal stimulus, in the rate of increase in monetary stimulus, in corporate profit growth, and in economic growth? Could it be that […]
“The Great Fire of Rome” was reportedly started in 64 A.D. upon secret orders from Emperor Nero, who wanted to clear the way for a giant new palace called the Domus Aurea. By the time that the fire burned itself out nine days later, two-thirds of the city had been destroyed and Nero, by ignoring […]