26

September

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – September 2019

The major global economies and markets remain mired in a “Catch 22” macroeconomic environment. The term “Catch 22” first became a part of the American lexicon in 1961 thanks to the Joseph Heller novel of the same name, in which a disillusioned American bombardier fighting in World War II desperately seeks to avoid flying future […]

28

August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2019

There is an old saying in the sport of boxing that you don’t need to worry about the punches that you can see, as you can prepare for them. Instead, it’s the punch you don’t see coming that knocks you out. In some regards, the capital markets work in much the same way. Markets are […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

24

July

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – July 2019

A Wall Street analyst recently referred, in a CNBC interview, to the current stock market as a “wild west market” due to his reasonable observation that investors are ignoring the world’s many risks and are “throwing caution to the wind”. However, while we believe that he makes a valid point, we think that it is […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

25

June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2019

As anyone who has ever watched an old western movie can tell you, one could always count on the cavalry to come charging in at the last minute and “save the day”. For much of the past thirty years, at least in the economic realm, that responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of the world’s […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

23

May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2019

American author Mark Twain observed that, “History does not repeat itself, but it oftentimes rhymes”. For evidence of just how insightful this perspective is, one needs to look no further than the Winter 1982 edition of Foreign Affairs Magazine, which noted that: “President Reagan won his office in part because he convinced the electorate that […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

29

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2019

One of the core premises on which monetary policy is based is that there is a direct relationship between economic growth and inflation. More specifically, prevailing economic theory maintains that strong economic data ultimately leads to both “full employment” and the full utilization of an economy’s productive capacity, and that both economic conditions, once they […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

29

March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

21

February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

Bernanke bond markets central banks China Composite of Leading Indicators consumer confidence consumer spending domestic economy dovish economic slowdown economic stimulus fiscal policy stimulus global slowdown global trade volumes hard economic data hawkish inflationary expectations interest rates Jim Bianco John Maynard Keynes monetary policy lag negative yields Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development over-tightened political uncertainty quantitative tightening raising rates recession Richard Clarida tax cuts trade wars Trump unemployment rate Yellen

23

January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2019

If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, could it actually be something entirely different? While this question appears entirely nonsensical on its surface, it epitomizes the challenges associated with making tactical investment decisions around potential market inflection points, when major trend changes may be underway. As […]

bear market bear traps Ben Bernanke Brett Ryan bull market capitulation chance of recession China Christmas counter-trend rallies crowd psychology decline Deutsche Bank duck euphoria fear Fed Chairman Powell Federal Reserve government shutdown greed hard data higher volatility investor emotion Mark Zandi monetary policy NYSE Pelosi quantitative tightening rally recession retest reversals in market trends short-term rates soft data stock market bottoms Trump two-way risk volatility volume equals validity wall of worry yield curve inversion Yogi Berra

20

December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2018

The just-released CNBC survey of economists, market strategists and money managers placed the blame for the stock market decline that started in late September on a variety of catalysts including, as prioritized in the survey: 1) tariffs and trade wars, 2) a weakening global economy, 3) the risk that the Fed raises rates too much, […]

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Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2019

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Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2019

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Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2018

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