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March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

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February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

Bernanke bond markets central banks China Composite of Leading Indicators consumer confidence consumer spending domestic economy dovish economic slowdown economic stimulus fiscal policy stimulus global slowdown global trade volumes hard economic data hawkish inflationary expectations interest rates Jim Bianco John Maynard Keynes monetary policy lag negative yields Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development over-tightened political uncertainty quantitative tightening raising rates recession Richard Clarida tax cuts trade wars Trump unemployment rate Yellen

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January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2019

If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, could it actually be something entirely different? While this question appears entirely nonsensical on its surface, it epitomizes the challenges associated with making tactical investment decisions around potential market inflection points, when major trend changes may be underway. As […]

bear market bear traps Ben Bernanke Brett Ryan bull market capitulation chance of recession China Christmas counter-trend rallies crowd psychology decline Deutsche Bank duck euphoria fear Fed Chairman Powell Federal Reserve government shutdown greed hard data higher volatility investor emotion Mark Zandi monetary policy NYSE Pelosi quantitative tightening rally recession retest reversals in market trends short-term rates soft data stock market bottoms Trump two-way risk volatility volume equals validity wall of worry yield curve inversion Yogi Berra

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December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2018

The just-released CNBC survey of economists, market strategists and money managers placed the blame for the stock market decline that started in late September on a variety of catalysts including, as prioritized in the survey: 1) tariffs and trade wars, 2) a weakening global economy, 3) the risk that the Fed raises rates too much, […]

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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

Ben Bernanke bull market central bankers Chairman Powell China cryptocurrency Deutsche Bank domestic financial system earnings growth employment equity markets Federal Funds Rate Federal Reserve financial assets financial liquidity financial speculation fiscal stimulus Great Recession growth recession high yield debt honesty ice hockey inflating value inflation interest rates mid-cap monetary policy Ned Davis Research one way risk President Trump price-to-earnings multiples profit expectations real estate recession recovery short-term rates small-cap sovereign debt tariffs tax cuts trade policy VIX index volatility Wayne Gretzky Xi Jingping

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2018

The dictionary defines a “perfect storm” as “a detrimental or calamitous situation or event arising from the powerful combined effect of a unique set of circumstances”. It is also, in our opinion, an appropriate and pragmatic way of describing the wide and diverse array of catalysts for the ongoing correction in the equity markets. Like […]

10-year Treasury yield accommodation Alan Greenspan bearish influence Bianco blue chip capitalization-weighted Chairman Powell election uncertainty Fed Funds Rate Fed put Federal Reserve Great Recession interest rates John Kenneth Galbraith monetary policy mutual funds NASDAQ Composite NYSE perfect storm portfolio volatility S&P 500 tax-loss selling technology bubble trade conflict yield curve zombie companies

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September

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – September 2018

One of our all-time favorite quips came from Mark Twain, who noted that “while history does not repeat itself, it oftentimes rhymes”. With that particularly pithy caveat as a disclaimer, there are some strong and notably persistent tendencies in the capital markets that are unique to midterm election years, and which can create both challenges […]

Brett Kavanaugh Capital Alpha Partners consumer confidence Democrat Deutsche Bank divided government election results European Union Federal Reserve FiveThirtyEight Goldman Sachs Great Britain Hillary Clinton House of Representatives immigration policies labor shortage Mark Twain market volatility midterm elections October potential impeachment rally Republican S&P 500 S&P Capital IQ Senate Supreme Court tax reform trade war UBS wage inflation Wells Fargo Investment Institute

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August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2018

Almost exactly twenty years ago, in the midst of the so-called “Asian Contagion” financial crisis, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan used the occasion of a 1998 Speech at the University of California at Berkeley to offer a perspective that was as prescient in 1998 as it is relevant in 2018. The Chairman noted that, “It is […]

Alan Greenspan Asia/Pacific region Asian Contagion bull market Chairman Powell China Chinese recession deflationary influences deregulation domestic interest rates emerging markets Europe European Union Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus growth stocks inflationary risk Latin America Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund low interest rates Mexico mid-term elections monetary accommodation monetary policy changes monetary stimulus NAFTA political drama President Trump quantitative tightening recession reversion to the mean tactical investment opportunities tax reform tech bubble Thai baht trade deal trade war U.S.value stocks

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July

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – July 2018

One of the most important concepts in investing is that nominal macro-economic and company-specific data is only made relevant to investors when it is considered in contrast to what expectations existed for the data prior to its release. This is because securities are discounting mechanisms that are priced based upon what data is expected to […]

aluminum automobile balance sheet shrinkage Charles Schwab China corporate earnings earnings European Central Bank European Union debt crisis expectations Fed Chair Powell Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Beige Book higher dollar inflation manufacturers Ned Davis Research rate hikes restrictive monetary policy share repurchasing steel stimulative monetary policy tariffs trade conflict trade disruptions trade flows trade policies trade war U.S. dollar uncertainty yield curve yield curve inversion

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June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2018

In light of the almost surreal trade-related headlines that confront us on a daily basis, it seems only appropriate to invoke the words of philosopher George Santayana, who famously remarked that “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” If the founding fathers of the world’s various democracies knew then what we […]

Alan Greenspan Ben Bernanke bond market China consumer staples Cook Political Report domestic bond prices domestic drillers European Central Bank Fed Chairman George Santayana Henry Ford inflation Mnuchin pharma President Hoover protectionism recession regional banks REITs small-cap Smoot-Hawley Tarriff Act tariffs telecom The Trade Partnership Thomas Lamont trade conflict trade protectionism trade-related uncertainty U.S. trade policy utilities

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