SPECIAL REPORT: THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS In order to better understand this historic decline across asset classes, one should keep in mind that we started the year with high valuations and even higher bullish sentiment, which suggests that the markets entered into this bearish period with many portfolios very leveraged and most portfolios largely unhedged. Indeed, […]
There is likely no field of human endeavor where maxims and sage tidbits of wisdom are more revered and more often recited than is the case in the field of investing. Indeed, you can point to these very reports as evidence of exactly that phenomena, as we emphasize the past wisdom and insight of others […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
Back in the early days of the Financial News Network, they had an exceptional credit market analyst named Ed Hart who would talk about periods “where the demand for certainty far exceeds the available supply”. If he were alive today, he would surely consider this to be one of those times. That said, even during […]
As renowned investor Howard Marks famously noted, “In the real world, things fluctuate between ‘pretty good’ and ‘not so hot’, but in the investing world, things go from ‘flawless’ to ‘hopeless’”. We have just witnessed a dramatic and violent example of such a transition. Until a week ago, we were in a “heads, the bulls […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
The natural state for a capitalistic economy is expansion and, as evidenced by the fact that the domestic stock market has gained value in approximately 74% of all years, the path of least resistance for equity markets is up. As such, it has historically been true that both the economy and equity prices normally […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
Renowned value investor, Sir John Templeton, coined one of the most insightful of all investing idioms when he observed that, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” His observation applies to a psychological process that normally takes years to unfold, as market gains over time and […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
On November 13th of this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “I think the new normal is lower interest rates, lower inflation, probably lower growth, and you’re seeing that all over the world, not just in the United States.” This is a remarkable statement on many levels, starting with the fact that it is […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
Throughout the course of human history, there have been seminal and transformative events and decisions that have, as if one flipped a switch, fundamentally changed the outlook for the global economy and the global capital markets. Examples of this phenomena are as diverse as they are rare, and include cases such as the fall of […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
The major global economies and markets remain mired in a “Catch 22” macroeconomic environment. The term “Catch 22” first became a part of the American lexicon in 1961 thanks to the Joseph Heller novel of the same name, in which a disillusioned American bombardier fighting in World War II desperately seeks to avoid flying future […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingPresident TrumpprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpTrump administrationVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve
There is an old saying in the sport of boxing that you don’t need to worry about the punches that you can see, as you can prepare for them. Instead, it’s the punch you don’t see coming that knocks you out. In some regards, the capital markets work in much the same way. Markets are […]
Asiabear marketbond marketsbondsBrexitbull marketbullishChinadebtdeflationderegulationdollardomestic economydomestic equityDonald Trumpemerging marketsequity marketsEuropeEuropean Central BankEuropean UnionFedFederal Reservefiscal stimulusGreeceinflationinterest ratesIRSJapanmonetary policyPer StirlingprotectionismQEquantitative easingrate hikerecessionretirementRussiaS&P 500taxtax reformTrumpVIXvolatilityYellenyield curve