25

June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2019

As anyone who has ever watched an old western movie can tell you, one could always count on the cavalry to come charging in at the last minute and “save the day”. For much of the past thirty years, at least in the economic realm, that responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of the world’s […]

23

May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2019

American author Mark Twain observed that, “History does not repeat itself, but it oftentimes rhymes”. For evidence of just how insightful this perspective is, one needs to look no further than the Winter 1982 edition of Foreign Affairs Magazine, which noted that: “President Reagan won his office in part because he convinced the electorate that […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

29

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2019

One of the core premises on which monetary policy is based is that there is a direct relationship between economic growth and inflation. More specifically, prevailing economic theory maintains that strong economic data ultimately leads to both “full employment” and the full utilization of an economy’s productive capacity, and that both economic conditions, once they […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

29

March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

21

February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

Bernanke bond markets central banks China Composite of Leading Indicators consumer confidence consumer spending domestic economy dovish economic slowdown economic stimulus fiscal policy stimulus global slowdown global trade volumes hard economic data hawkish inflationary expectations interest rates Jim Bianco John Maynard Keynes monetary policy lag negative yields Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development over-tightened political uncertainty quantitative tightening raising rates recession Richard Clarida tax cuts trade wars Trump unemployment rate Yellen

30

June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2017

Imagine a family relaxing in a swimming pool, with every family member using a flotation device to remain on the surface of the water. It doesn’t matter who is stronger or who is a better swimmer because everyone is being kept afloat by an external force. If the amount of water in the pool is […]

asset bubble asset-backed securities bond markets Brexit bull market domestic economy Europe Fed Federal Reserve financial assets flotation global economy global money supply index investing inflated prices inflation interest rates inverted yield curve Japan monetary policy Operation Twist quantitative easing rate hike real assets recession short-term rates treasury debt US consumer spending yield curve

25

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2016

Expectations and sentiment are incredibly important in regard to their influence on both the economy and the markets. In regard to markets, too much bullishness is bad, because it means that most of the potential buyers of securities have already bought, and that there is very little sideline cash remaining to drive the markets higher. […]

bearish Bernanke bonds bullish China dollar domestic economy duration economic contraction ETFs expectations fear index Federal Reserve global inflation interest rates Japan negative interest rates pessimism Sanders sentiment surprise treasuries Trump VIX Volker Yellen yen yield

30

December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2015

Warren Buffett famously noted that “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” This quote has particular relevance today as we are finally starting to see free-market pricing mechanisms at work, as market-distorting forces ranging from the Federal Reserve’s expansive monetary stimulus programs to the O.P.E.C. oil cartel are increasingly […]

asset allocation asset class inflation Ben Bernanke Bianco China diversification dollar domestic economy domestic equity energy Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus foreign equity growth rate growth stocks interest rate International Energy Agency Iran manufacturing market manipulation oil OPEC reflation Russia Saudi Arabia service shale value stocks Warren Buffett zero percent interest rate

07

October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2015

Capital markets are known for “reverting to the mean”, which is one reason why we have been predicting, since mid-summer, that the markets were overdue for a period of dramatic downside volatility. That prediction was proven quite prescient in the third quarter, when the equity markets followed the least volatile six months in U.S. […]

China domestic economy equity markets Europe tax

05

May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2015

Both economics and capital markets analysis are, at their core, based upon the study of history. Everything that analysts, economists, strategists and investors know, or think that they know, is based upon the premise that the past offers some insight into the future, and that it is reasonable to expect for both markets and economies […]

Asia China dollar domestic economy Europe European Union Federal Reserve global equity Greece IMF interest rates International Monetary Fund Japan monetary policy QE quantitative easing

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