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March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

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February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

Bernanke bond markets central banks China Composite of Leading Indicators consumer confidence consumer spending domestic economy dovish economic slowdown economic stimulus fiscal policy stimulus global slowdown global trade volumes hard economic data hawkish inflationary expectations interest rates Jim Bianco John Maynard Keynes monetary policy lag negative yields Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development over-tightened political uncertainty quantitative tightening raising rates recession Richard Clarida tax cuts trade wars Trump unemployment rate Yellen

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June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2017

Imagine a family relaxing in a swimming pool, with every family member using a flotation device to remain on the surface of the water. It doesn’t matter who is stronger or who is a better swimmer because everyone is being kept afloat by an external force. If the amount of water in the pool is […]

asset bubble asset-backed securities bond markets Brexit bull market domestic economy Europe Fed Federal Reserve financial assets flotation global economy global money supply index investing inflated prices inflation interest rates inverted yield curve Japan monetary policy Operation Twist quantitative easing rate hike real assets recession short-term rates treasury debt US consumer spending yield curve

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April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2016

Expectations and sentiment are incredibly important in regard to their influence on both the economy and the markets. In regard to markets, too much bullishness is bad, because it means that most of the potential buyers of securities have already bought, and that there is very little sideline cash remaining to drive the markets higher. […]

bearish Bernanke bonds bullish China dollar domestic economy duration economic contraction ETFs expectations fear index Federal Reserve global inflation interest rates Japan negative interest rates pessimism Sanders sentiment surprise treasuries Trump VIX Volker Yellen yen yield

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December

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2015

Warren Buffett famously noted that “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” This quote has particular relevance today as we are finally starting to see free-market pricing mechanisms at work, as market-distorting forces ranging from the Federal Reserve’s expansive monetary stimulus programs to the O.P.E.C. oil cartel are increasingly […]

asset allocation asset class inflation Ben Bernanke Bianco China diversification dollar domestic economy domestic equity energy Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus foreign equity growth rate growth stocks interest rate International Energy Agency Iran manufacturing market manipulation oil OPEC reflation Russia Saudi Arabia service shale value stocks Warren Buffett zero percent interest rate

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2015

Capital markets are known for “reverting to the mean”, which is one reason why we have been predicting, since mid-summer, that the markets were overdue for a period of dramatic downside volatility. That prediction was proven quite prescient in the third quarter, when the equity markets followed the least volatile six months in U.S. […]

China domestic economy equity markets Europe tax

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May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2015

Both economics and capital markets analysis are, at their core, based upon the study of history. Everything that analysts, economists, strategists and investors know, or think that they know, is based upon the premise that the past offers some insight into the future, and that it is reasonable to expect for both markets and economies […]

Asia China dollar domestic economy Europe European Union Federal Reserve global equity Greece IMF interest rates International Monetary Fund Japan monetary policy QE quantitative easing

01

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2015

Ancient Greek playwright Sophocles wrote: “No one loves the messenger who brings bad news.” To wit, Sophocles would have had great difficulty explaining the domestic stock market over the past six years as, ever since the Fed expanded its initial quantitative easing (QE) program in March of 2009, investors have not only disavowed this seemingly […]

Asia Coincident Economic Index dollar domestic economy Europe European Union Federal Reserve global equity interest rates Leading Economic Index monetary policy quantitative easing

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