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March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

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February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

Bernanke bond markets central banks China Composite of Leading Indicators consumer confidence consumer spending domestic economy dovish economic slowdown economic stimulus fiscal policy stimulus global slowdown global trade volumes hard economic data hawkish inflationary expectations interest rates Jim Bianco John Maynard Keynes monetary policy lag negative yields Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development over-tightened political uncertainty quantitative tightening raising rates recession Richard Clarida tax cuts trade wars Trump unemployment rate Yellen

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November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2018

The dictionary defines a “perfect storm” as “a detrimental or calamitous situation or event arising from the powerful combined effect of a unique set of circumstances”. It is also, in our opinion, an appropriate and pragmatic way of describing the wide and diverse array of catalysts for the ongoing correction in the equity markets. Like […]

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May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2018

Warren Buffett has long been a great source for market perspective that is both pithy and insightful, and one of his very best adages is that, “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. In this instance, it is the tide of monetary liquidity that is “going out”, and some […]

American Association of Individual Investors APAC Argentina bonds BRIC bull market buying power changing fundamentals corporate earnings correction deregulation economic contraction emerging markets EUR Federal Funds Rate future rally interest rates investor psychology Italy Japan Latin America monetary liquidity monetary tightening peak earnings quantitative easing rally sustainability sideline cash stronger US dollar Venezuela Warren Buffett zombie companies

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April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2018

In many regards, the words President and Trump, when put together, become an oxymoron of sorts, because he rarely conforms to the common perception of what we, as Americans, consider to be “presidential”. However, the fact that President Trump is bombastic and unorthodox should hardly be a surprise. Those are probably the very personality traits […]

American Association of Individual Investors Australia bearish sentiment bull market Canada China company earnings cyclical top deregulation European Union Fed Chairman global economic data Great Britain immigration interest rates investor psychology Iran Japan Jay Powell NAFTA protectionism Russia Syria tariff tax reform TPP trade Trump uncertainty United Nations valuations volatility World Trade Organization

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March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2018

We had noted in a January Reuters interview our belief that, “Short of something truly stupid like a trade war with China or a withdrawal from NAFTA, or something horrific like a nuclear conflict with North Korea, we don’t see a scenario where investors are likely to elevate politics to the same level of importance […]

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February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2018

There is probably no other professional or academic pursuit in which aphorisms and maxims are so prevalent and so enduring as they are in the world of market analysis and investing. Indeed, there is a very good reason for that being the case, which is that so many of these pieces of market lore are just as […]

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January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2017

When asked on August 15th on “Fox & Friends” about his goals for tax reform, President Trump replied, to “put H&R Block out of business.” Tax simplification is a favorite spurious term of politicians, as it is something that almost everyone can get behind. We see this term used all of the time including, as […]

Alternative Minimum Tax bond markets Competitive Enterprise Institute corporate tax rates corporations deregulation economic stimulus effective tax rate Fed funds Fed Funds Rate Federal Reserve fiscal policy fiscal stimulus futures markets global recovery Gluskin Sheff growth investors H&R Block impending recession inflation rate interest rates International Monetary Fund job creation monetary stimulus monetary tightening repatriation tax Tax Cuts and Jobs Act tax reform tax simplification Trump yield curve

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October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2017

Traditionally, the selection of the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve is anything but a compelling drama or anything worth paying particular attention to. To the contrary, the identity of the nominee is normally a foregone conclusion as, since World War II, every Chairperson who completed a first term has been nominated for a second […]

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