27

November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

22

October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2018

The dictionary defines a “perfect storm” as “a detrimental or calamitous situation or event arising from the powerful combined effect of a unique set of circumstances”. It is also, in our opinion, an appropriate and pragmatic way of describing the wide and diverse array of catalysts for the ongoing correction in the equity markets. Like […]

10-year Treasury yield accommodation Alan Greenspan bearish influence Bianco blue chip capitalization-weighted Chairman Powell election uncertainty Fed Funds Rate Fed put Federal Reserve Great Recession interest rates John Kenneth Galbraith monetary policy mutual funds NASDAQ Composite NYSE perfect storm portfolio volatility S&P 500 tax-loss selling technology bubble trade conflict yield curve zombie companies

31

May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2018

Warren Buffett has long been a great source for market perspective that is both pithy and insightful, and one of his very best adages is that, “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. In this instance, it is the tide of monetary liquidity that is “going out”, and some […]

American Association of Individual Investors APAC Argentina bonds BRIC bull market buying power changing fundamentals corporate earnings correction deregulation economic contraction emerging markets EUR Federal Funds Rate future rally interest rates investor psychology Italy Japan Latin America monetary liquidity monetary tightening peak earnings quantitative easing rally sustainability sideline cash stronger US dollar Venezuela Warren Buffett zombie companies

16

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2018

In many regards, the words President and Trump, when put together, become an oxymoron of sorts, because he rarely conforms to the common perception of what we, as Americans, consider to be “presidential”. However, the fact that President Trump is bombastic and unorthodox should hardly be a surprise. Those are probably the very personality traits […]

American Association of Individual Investors Australia bearish sentiment bull market Canada China company earnings cyclical top deregulation European Union Fed Chairman global economic data Great Britain immigration interest rates investor psychology Iran Japan Jay Powell NAFTA protectionism Russia Syria tariff tax reform TPP trade Trump uncertainty United Nations valuations volatility World Trade Organization

26

March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2018

We had noted in a January Reuters interview our belief that, “Short of something truly stupid like a trade war with China or a withdrawal from NAFTA, or something horrific like a nuclear conflict with North Korea, we don’t see a scenario where investors are likely to elevate politics to the same level of importance […]

aluminum Argentina Australia Bank of Japan Brazil Canada China corporate earnings growth currency markets dictators domestic debt European Central Bank European Union Federal Reserve inflation inflationary mix intellectual property interest rates Mexico monetary policy NAFTA North Korea Penn Wharton Budget Model Peter Navarro protectionism quantitative easing Robert Lighthizer steel tariffs trade deficit trade war Trump undervalued currencies value-added taxes White House National Trade Council world trade

05

February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – January 2018

There is probably no other professional or academic pursuit in which aphorisms and maxims are so prevalent and so enduring as they are in the world of market analysis and investing. Indeed, there is a very good reason for that being the case, which is that so many of these pieces of market lore are just as […]

bear markets bearish capitulation bears bond markets bond prices bull markets bulls CATO Institute ETFs Federal Reserve financial crisis FOMO fundamentals Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index Great Rotation inflation interest rates Jay Powell Millennials monetary stimulus monetary tightening quantitative easing quantitative tightening S&P 500 securitized real estate Teflon terminal interest rate dilemma

02

January

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – December 2017

When asked on August 15th on “Fox & Friends” about his goals for tax reform, President Trump replied, to “put H&R Block out of business.” Tax simplification is a favorite spurious term of politicians, as it is something that almost everyone can get behind. We see this term used all of the time including, as […]

Alternative Minimum Tax bond markets Competitive Enterprise Institute corporate tax rates corporations deregulation economic stimulus effective tax rate Fed funds Fed Funds Rate Federal Reserve fiscal policy fiscal stimulus futures markets global recovery Gluskin Sheff growth investors H&R Block impending recession inflation rate interest rates International Monetary Fund job creation monetary stimulus monetary tightening repatriation tax Tax Cuts and Jobs Act tax reform tax simplification Trump yield curve

31

October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2017

Traditionally, the selection of the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve is anything but a compelling drama or anything worth paying particular attention to. To the contrary, the identity of the nominee is normally a foregone conclusion as, since World War II, every Chairperson who completed a first term has been nominated for a second […]

Bernanke Chairperson deficit Democrat Democrats dovish Federal Reserve fiscal policy fiscal stimulus Great Depression inflationary risk interest rates John Taylor Kevin Warsh monetary liquidity monetary policy money supply national debt nomination PredictIt President Obama President Reagan President Trump quantitative easing Randal Quarles rate hike small-cap stocks tax reform Taylor Rule World War II Yellen

29

September

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – September 2017

There are certain basic rules and inter-market relationships that every first-year economics student is taught as a matter of fact. As an example, a slowing economy should lead to lower inflation, which is bullish for bonds, and to slowing earnings, which is bearish for stocks. Or, that a stronger currency increases consumer purchasing power, which […]

active management bull market central bank corporate tax reform correction cyclical stocks deflation disinflation equity valuations Federal Reserve free-market price discovery fundamentals healthcare historical valuations hyper-inflation interest rates monetary policy money supply multi-national exporting price-to-earnings quantitative easing recession small capitalization speculation tactical managers tax reform technology valuation volatility

31

August

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – August 2017

Over the past decade, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has developed into the preferred venue for the world’s major central bankers to influence and offer guidance to both the capital markets and business leaders, and to announce and update their innovative and very aggressive monetary policies. As the 2017 Symposium has just come to […]

Asia asset prices Ben Bernanke bond investors bond market Britain capital markets central bankers China corporate regulation deregulation domestic stocks Europe European Central Bank Federal Reserve fundamentals Global Financial Crisis globalism high quality bonds higher rates inflation interest rates isolationism Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Japan Latin America lower rates market breadth negative yields positive yield quantitative easing quantitative tightening sovereign bonds US multinational stocks wealth effect

Blog

27