24

July

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – July 2019

A Wall Street analyst recently referred, in a CNBC interview, to the current stock market as a “wild west market” due to his reasonable observation that investors are ignoring the world’s many risks and are “throwing caution to the wind”. However, while we believe that he makes a valid point, we think that it is […]

25

June

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – June 2019

As anyone who has ever watched an old western movie can tell you, one could always count on the cavalry to come charging in at the last minute and “save the day”. For much of the past thirty years, at least in the economic realm, that responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of the world’s […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

23

May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2019

American author Mark Twain observed that, “History does not repeat itself, but it oftentimes rhymes”. For evidence of just how insightful this perspective is, one needs to look no further than the Winter 1982 edition of Foreign Affairs Magazine, which noted that: “President Reagan won his office in part because he convinced the electorate that […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

29

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2019

One of the core premises on which monetary policy is based is that there is a direct relationship between economic growth and inflation. More specifically, prevailing economic theory maintains that strong economic data ultimately leads to both “full employment” and the full utilization of an economy’s productive capacity, and that both economic conditions, once they […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

29

March

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – March 2019

If there is any single sentence that epitomizes how the Federal Reserve operated in the pre-Bernanke era, it is probably the reply given by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a 1987 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He responded to a question by saying, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have […]

Asia bear market bond markets bonds Brexit bull market bullish China debt deflation deregulation dollar domestic economy domestic equity Donald Trump emerging markets equity markets Europe European Central Bank European Union Fed Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus Greece inflation interest rates IRS Japan monetary policy Per Stirling protectionism QE quantitative easing rate hike recession retirement Russia S&P 500 tax tax reform Trump VIX volatility Yellen yield curve

21

February

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – February 2019

Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes was one of the great thought leaders of his day. However, he was regularly criticized for some of his opinions morphing over time. During one particularly high-profile government hearing, when Keynes was being criticized for being inconsistent, Keynes reportedly fired back “When the facts change, I change my mind. What […]

Bernanke bond markets central banks China Composite of Leading Indicators consumer confidence consumer spending domestic economy dovish economic slowdown economic stimulus fiscal policy stimulus global slowdown global trade volumes hard economic data hawkish inflationary expectations interest rates Jim Bianco John Maynard Keynes monetary policy lag negative yields Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development over-tightened political uncertainty quantitative tightening raising rates recession Richard Clarida tax cuts trade wars Trump unemployment rate Yellen

27

November

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – November 2018

Ice hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That is great advice, when you are standing on an ice rink, and can see in advance every potential impediment that stands in the way of a successful pass. It is an entirely […]

Ben Bernanke bull market central bankers Chairman Powell China cryptocurrency Deutsche Bank domestic financial system earnings growth employment equity markets Federal Funds Rate Federal Reserve financial assets financial liquidity financial speculation fiscal stimulus Great Recession growth recession high yield debt honesty ice hockey inflating value inflation interest rates mid-cap monetary policy Ned Davis Research one way risk President Trump price-to-earnings multiples profit expectations real estate recession recovery short-term rates small-cap sovereign debt tariffs tax cuts trade policy VIX index volatility Wayne Gretzky Xi Jingping

22

October

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – October 2018

The dictionary defines a “perfect storm” as “a detrimental or calamitous situation or event arising from the powerful combined effect of a unique set of circumstances”. It is also, in our opinion, an appropriate and pragmatic way of describing the wide and diverse array of catalysts for the ongoing correction in the equity markets. Like […]

10-year Treasury yield accommodation Alan Greenspan bearish influence Bianco blue chip capitalization-weighted Chairman Powell election uncertainty Fed Funds Rate Fed put Federal Reserve Great Recession interest rates John Kenneth Galbraith monetary policy mutual funds NASDAQ Composite NYSE perfect storm portfolio volatility S&P 500 tax-loss selling technology bubble trade conflict yield curve zombie companies

31

May

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – May 2018

Warren Buffett has long been a great source for market perspective that is both pithy and insightful, and one of his very best adages is that, “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. In this instance, it is the tide of monetary liquidity that is “going out”, and some […]

American Association of Individual Investors APAC Argentina bonds BRIC bull market buying power changing fundamentals corporate earnings correction deregulation economic contraction emerging markets EUR Federal Funds Rate future rally interest rates investor psychology Italy Japan Latin America monetary liquidity monetary tightening peak earnings quantitative easing rally sustainability sideline cash stronger US dollar Venezuela Warren Buffett zombie companies

16

April

Per Stirling Capital Outlook – April 2018

In many regards, the words President and Trump, when put together, become an oxymoron of sorts, because he rarely conforms to the common perception of what we, as Americans, consider to be “presidential”. However, the fact that President Trump is bombastic and unorthodox should hardly be a surprise. Those are probably the very personality traits […]

American Association of Individual Investors Australia bearish sentiment bull market Canada China company earnings cyclical top deregulation European Union Fed Chairman global economic data Great Britain immigration interest rates investor psychology Iran Japan Jay Powell NAFTA protectionism Russia Syria tariff tax reform TPP trade Trump uncertainty United Nations valuations volatility World Trade Organization

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